Premier League · 2026-27
What happened
Newcastle United 0–1 Aston Villa.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
NUDrawAV
expected goals
1.74–1.60
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 35% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
NU ↓AV →
012340
4
6
5
2
1
16
10
8
4
2
25
9
7
4
1
33
5
4
2
1
41
2
2
1
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
NU
ATT XG+0.54
DEF XGA+0.28
FORM-0.67
AVAIL0.00
AV
ATT XG+0.57
DEF XGA+0.80
FORM+0.67
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG