Premier League · 2026-27
What happened
Liverpool 0–3 Manchester City.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
LIVDrawMCI
expected goals
1.65–1.54
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 35% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
LIV ↓MCI →
012340
4
6
5
3
1
17
10
8
4
2
26
9
7
3
1
33
5
4
2
1
41
2
2
1
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
LIV
ATT XG+0.78
DEF XGA+0.98
FORM+1.00
AVAIL0.00
MCI
ATT XG+1.43
DEF XGA+1.08
FORM+1.00
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG