MLS · 2026
What happened
FC Cincinnati 0–2 Columbus Crew.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
FCDrawCC
expected goals
2.36–1.93
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 32% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
FC ↓CC →
012340
1
3
3
2
1
13
6
6
4
2
24
7
7
5
2
33
6
6
4
2
42
3
3
2
1
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
FC
ATT XG+0.81
DEF XGA-1.97
FORM-0.67
AVAIL0.00
CC
ATT XG-0.13
DEF XGA+0.15
FORM+1.00
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG