MLS · 2026
What happened
Houston Dynamo FC 2–2 FC Dallas.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
HDFDrawFD
expected goals
1.60–1.30
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 26% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
HDF ↓FD →
012340
6
7
5
2
1
19
11
7
3
1
27
9
6
3
1
34
5
3
1
0
42
2
1
1
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
HDF
ATT XG-0.38
DEF XGA+0.83
FORM-0.33
AVAIL0.00
FD
ATT XG+0.46
DEF XGA+0.13
FORM+0.33
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG