MLS · 2026
What happened
Red Bull New York 0–2 Toronto FC.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
RBNDrawTF
expected goals
1.69–1.49
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 33% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
RBN ↓TF →
012340
4
6
5
2
1
17
10
8
4
1
26
9
7
3
1
33
5
4
2
1
41
2
2
1
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
RBN
ATT XG-0.80
DEF XGA-0.59
FORM-0.33
AVAIL0.00
TF
ATT XG-0.17
DEF XGA-0.42
FORM0.00
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG