MLS · 2026
What happened
Minnesota United FC 3–2 St. Louis CITY SC.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
MUFDrawSLC
expected goals
1.66–1.88
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 34% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
MUF ↓SLC →
012340
3
5
5
3
2
15
9
9
5
3
24
8
7
4
2
32
4
4
2
1
41
2
2
1
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
MUF
ATT XG+0.12
DEF XGA-0.67
FORM-0.33
AVAIL0.00
SLC
ATT XG+0.58
DEF XGA+0.49
FORM+0.67
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG