MLS · 2026
What happened
San Diego FC 3–3 Houston Dynamo FC.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
SDFDrawHDF
expected goals
1.47–1.34
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 27% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
SDF ↓HDF →
012340
6
8
5
2
1
19
12
8
4
1
27
9
6
3
1
33
4
3
1
0
41
2
1
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
SDF
ATT XG+0.18
DEF XGA-0.75
FORM-0.33
AVAIL0.00
HDF
ATT XG-0.38
DEF XGA+0.83
FORM-0.33
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG