MLS · 2026
What happened
Chicago Fire FC 1–3 Philadelphia Union.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
CFFDrawPU
expected goals
1.95–1.50
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 29% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
CFF ↓PU →
012340
3
5
4
2
1
16
9
7
3
1
26
9
7
3
1
34
6
4
2
1
42
3
2
1
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
CFF
ATT XG+0.08
DEF XGA+0.38
FORM+0.33
AVAIL0.00
PU
ATT XG+0.70
DEF XGA+0.18
FORM+1.33
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG