MLS · 2026
What happened
Toronto FC 3–3 Orlando City SC.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
TFDrawOCS
expected goals
2.22–1.75
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 21% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
TF ↓OCS →
012340
2
3
3
2
1
14
7
6
4
2
25
8
7
4
2
33
6
5
3
1
42
3
3
2
1
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
TF
ATT XG-0.17
DEF XGA-0.42
FORM0.00
AVAIL0.00
OCS
ATT XG+0.64
DEF XGA-1.40
FORM0.00
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG