MLS · 2026
What happened
FC Cincinnati 2–3 New England Revolution.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
FCDrawNER
expected goals
2.18–1.87
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 34% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
FC ↓NER →
012340
2
3
3
2
1
14
7
7
4
2
24
8
7
5
2
33
6
5
3
2
42
3
3
2
1
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
FC
ATT XG+0.81
DEF XGA-1.96
FORM-0.67
AVAIL0.00
NER
ATT XG-0.13
DEF XGA+0.58
FORM+0.33
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG