MLS · 2026
What happened
Red Bull New York 4–1 San Diego FC.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
RBNDrawSDF
expected goals
1.48–1.65
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 34% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
RBN ↓SDF →
012340
4
7
6
3
1
16
11
9
5
2
25
8
7
4
1
32
4
3
2
1
41
1
1
1
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
RBN
ATT XG-0.80
DEF XGA-0.59
FORM-0.33
AVAIL0.00
SDF
ATT XG+0.18
DEF XGA-0.75
FORM-0.33
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG