MLS · 2026
What happened
Atlanta United FC 1–3 FC Cincinnati.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
AUFDrawFC
expected goals
2.01–1.85
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 36% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
AUF ↓FC →
012340
2
4
4
2
1
14
8
7
4
2
24
8
7
4
2
33
5
5
3
1
41
3
2
2
1
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
AUF
ATT XG-0.77
DEF XGA-0.10
FORM0.00
AVAIL0.00
FC
ATT XG+0.81
DEF XGA-1.97
FORM-0.67
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG