MLS · 2026
What happened
Austin FC 3–3 San Diego FC.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
AFDrawSDF
expected goals
1.57–1.41
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 26% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
AF ↓SDF →
012340
5
7
5
2
1
18
11
8
4
1
26
9
6
3
1
33
5
3
2
1
41
2
1
1
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
AF
ATT XG-0.47
DEF XGA-0.45
FORM-1.00
AVAIL0.00
SDF
ATT XG+0.18
DEF XGA-0.75
FORM-0.33
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG