MLS · 2026
What happened
CF Montréal 3–1 FC Cincinnati.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
CMDrawFC
expected goals
1.88–2.13
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 34% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
CM ↓FC →
012340
2
4
4
3
2
13
7
8
5
3
23
7
7
5
3
32
4
5
3
2
41
2
2
2
1
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
CM
ATT XG-0.96
DEF XGA-0.72
FORM-0.67
AVAIL0.00
FC
ATT XG+0.81
DEF XGA-1.97
FORM-0.67
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG