MLS · 2026
What happened
Atlanta United FC 2–2 New York City FC.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
AUFDrawNYC
expected goals
1.13–1.28
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 29% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
AUF ↓NYC →
012340
9
11
7
3
1
110
13
8
4
1
26
7
5
2
1
32
3
2
1
0
41
1
0
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
AUF
ATT XG-0.77
DEF XGA-0.10
FORM0.00
AVAIL0.00
NYC
ATT XG-0.44
DEF XGA+0.71
FORM-1.00
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG