Premier League · 2026-27
What happened
Aston Villa 2–2 Brentford.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
AVDrawBRE
expected goals
1.81–1.33
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 24% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
AV ↓BRE →
012340
4
6
4
2
1
18
10
7
3
1
27
9
6
3
1
34
6
4
2
1
42
3
2
1
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
AV
ATT XG+0.57
DEF XGA+0.80
FORM+0.67
AVAIL0.00
BRE
ATT XG+0.19
DEF XGA+0.39
FORM0.00
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG