Premier League · 2026-27
What happened
Fulham 1–1 Manchester United.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
FULDrawMU
expected goals
1.41–1.49
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 26% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
FUL ↓MU →
012340
6
8
6
3
1
18
12
9
4
2
25
8
6
3
1
33
4
3
1
1
41
1
1
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
FUL
ATT XG-0.42
DEF XGA+0.50
FORM-0.33
AVAIL0.00
MU
ATT XG+0.36
DEF XGA+0.64
FORM-0.67
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG