Premier League · 2026-27
What happened
AFC Bournemouth 0–1 Liverpool.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
ABDrawLIV
expected goals
1.59–1.56
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 37% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
AB ↓LIV →
012340
4
7
5
3
1
17
11
8
4
2
25
8
7
3
1
33
4
3
2
1
41
2
1
1
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
AB
ATT XG+0.59
DEF XGA+0.50
FORM+0.33
AVAIL0.00
LIV
ATT XG+0.84
DEF XGA+0.82
FORM+1.00
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG