Int. Friendlies · 2026
What happened
Kyrgyz Republic 3–1 Lebanon.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
KRDrawLEB
expected goals
0.48–0.86
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 19% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
KR ↓LEB →
012340
26
23
10
3
1
113
11
5
1
0
23
3
1
0
0
30
0
0
0
0
40
0
0
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
KR
ATT XG+0.58
DEF XGA+3.25
FORM+0.33
AVAIL0.00
LEB
ATT XG+2.68
DEF XGA+1.29
FORM0.00
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG