Int. Friendlies · 2026
What happened
Colombia 0–1 Paraguay.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
COLDrawPAR
expected goals
0.79–0.66
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 27% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
COL ↓PAR →
012340
23
15
5
1
0
119
12
4
1
0
27
5
2
0
0
32
1
0
0
0
40
0
0
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
COL
ATT XG-0.63
DEF XGA+2.18
FORM0.00
AVAIL0.00
PAR
ATT XG-0.55
DEF XGA+2.90
FORM+0.67
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG