Int. Friendlies · 2026
What happened
Lithuania 3–0 Andorra.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
LITDrawAND
expected goals
1.24–1.32
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 34% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
LIT ↓AND →
012340
8
10
7
3
1
110
13
8
4
1
26
8
5
2
1
32
3
2
1
0
41
1
1
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
LIT
ATT XG+0.84
DEF XGA+1.98
FORM0.00
AVAIL0.00
AND
ATT XG-0.91
DEF XGA+1.10
FORM-1.33
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG