Int. Friendlies · 2026
What happened
Botswana 0–2 Mozambique.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
BOTDrawMOZ
expected goals
4.12–0.50
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 1% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
BOT ↓MOZ →
012340
1
0
0
0
0
14
2
1
0
0
28
4
1
0
0
311
6
1
0
0
412
6
1
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
BOT
ATT XG-2.32
DEF XGA-5.82
FORM-0.33
AVAIL0.00
MOZ
ATT XG-1.68
DEF XGA+1.52
FORM-0.67
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG