Int. Friendlies · 2026
What happened
Tajikistan 2–4 Palestine.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
TAJDrawPAL
expected goals
0.36–0.52
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 30% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
TAJ ↓PAL →
012340
41
22
6
1
0
115
8
2
0
0
23
1
0
0
0
30
0
0
0
0
40
0
0
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
TAJ
ATT XG-0.69
DEF XGA-0.14
FORM-0.33
AVAIL0.00
PAL
ATT XG+1.00
DEF XGA+1.72
FORM+0.67
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG