Int. Friendlies · 2026
What happened
South Korea 3–0 Ecuador.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
SKDrawECU
expected goals
0.49–1.43
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 12% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
SK ↓ECU →
012340
15
21
15
7
3
17
10
7
4
1
22
3
2
1
0
30
0
0
0
0
40
0
0
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
SK
ATT XG-1.74
DEF XGA+0.59
FORM0.00
AVAIL0.00
ECU
ATT XG-1.71
DEF XGA-1.57
FORM-0.67
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG