Int. Friendlies · 2026
What happened
Palestine 2–2 New Zealand.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
PALDrawNZ
expected goals
0.97–0.33
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 38% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
PAL ↓NZ →
012340
27
9
1
0
0
126
9
1
0
0
213
4
1
0
0
34
1
0
0
0
41
0
0
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
PAL
ATT XG+1.00
DEF XGA+1.72
FORM+0.67
AVAIL0.00
NZ
ATT XG+0.14
DEF XGA-0.86
FORM-0.33
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG