Int. Friendlies · 2026
What happened
Papua New Guinea 1–2 New Caledonia.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
PNGDrawNC
expected goals
1.72–0.36
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 7% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
PNG ↓NC →
012340
12
4
1
0
0
121
8
1
0
0
218
7
1
0
0
311
4
1
0
0
45
2
0
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
PNG
ATT XG-1.34
DEF XGA-0.05
FORM-0.33
AVAIL0.00
NC
ATT XG-0.58
DEF XGA-1.19
FORM-0.67
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG