Int. Friendlies · 2026
What happened
Solomon Islands 3–3 Vanuatu.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
SIDrawVAN
expected goals
1.85–0.82
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 23% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
SI ↓VAN →
012340
7
6
2
1
0
113
11
4
1
0
212
10
4
1
0
37
6
2
1
0
43
3
1
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
SI
ATT XG+1.96
DEF XGA-0.77
FORM0.00
AVAIL0.00
VAN
ATT XG+0.20
DEF XGA+0.31
FORM0.00
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG