Int. Friendlies · 2026
What happened
Azerbaijan 1–0 Tajikistan.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
AZEDrawTAJ
expected goals
0.65–3.14
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 4% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
AZE ↓TAJ →
012340
2
7
11
12
9
11
5
7
8
6
20
1
2
2
2
30
0
1
1
0
40
0
0
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
AZE
ATT XG-1.22
DEF XGA+2.96
FORM+1.00
AVAIL0.00
TAJ
ATT XG-0.69
DEF XGA-0.14
FORM-0.33
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG