Int. Friendlies · 2026
What happened
New Caledonia 0–2 Solomon Islands.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
NCDrawSI
expected goals
3.85–2.07
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 17% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
NC ↓SI →
012340
0
1
1
0
0
11
2
2
2
1
22
4
4
3
2
33
5
5
4
2
42
5
5
4
2
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
NC
ATT XG-0.58
DEF XGA-1.19
FORM-0.67
AVAIL0.00
SI
ATT XG+1.96
DEF XGA-0.77
FORM0.00
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG