Argentine Primera División · 2026
What happened
Atlético Tucumán 2–3 Barracas Central.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
ATDrawBC
expected goals
0.94–0.71
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 26% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
AT ↓BC →
012340
19
14
5
1
0
118
13
5
1
0
28
6
2
1
0
33
2
1
0
0
41
0
0
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
AT
ATT XG-0.83
DEF XGA+0.55
FORM-1.33
AVAIL0.00
BC
ATT XG-0.90
DEF XGA+1.32
FORM+0.33
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG