Categoría Primera A · Clausura · 2026
What happened
Fortaleza CEIF 2–2 Deportes Tolima.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
FCDrawDT
expected goals
1.35–1.31
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 28% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
FC ↓DT →
012340
7
9
6
3
1
19
12
8
4
1
26
8
5
2
1
33
4
2
1
0
41
1
1
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
FC
ATT XG-0.59
DEF XGA-0.05
FORM-0.67
AVAIL0.00
DT
ATT XG-0.49
DEF XGA+0.93
FORM-0.67
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG