Primeira Liga · 2026-27
What happened
Vitória de Guimaraes 1–1 Moreirense.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
VDGDrawMOR
expected goals
1.36–0.93
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 29% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
VDG ↓MOR →
012340
10
9
4
1
0
114
13
6
2
0
29
9
4
1
0
34
4
2
1
0
41
1
1
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
VDG
ATT XG-0.90
DEF XGA+0.31
FORM-1.00
AVAIL0.00
MOR
ATT XG-1.20
DEF XGA+0.15
FORM-0.67
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG