Bundesliga · 2026-27
What happened
FC Augsburg 2–2 Bayern Munich.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
FADrawFCB
expected goals
1.48–2.85
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 17% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
FA ↓FCB →
012340
1
4
5
5
4
12
6
8
8
5
21
4
6
6
4
31
2
3
3
2
40
1
1
1
1
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
FA
ATT XG+0.15
DEF XGA-0.49
FORM-0.33
AVAIL0.00
FCB
ATT XG+3.03
DEF XGA+1.13
FORM+1.00
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG