Bundesliga · 2026-27
What happened
1. FC Union Berlin 1–0 SV Elversberg.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
1FUDrawSE
expected goals
1.49–2.03
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 28% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
1FU ↓SE →
012340
3
6
6
4
2
14
9
9
6
3
23
7
7
5
2
32
3
3
2
1
41
1
1
1
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
1FU
ATT XG-0.77
DEF XGA-0.39
FORM-0.67
AVAIL0.00
SE
ATT XG+0.55
DEF XGA-0.37
FORM0.00
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG