Bundesliga · 2026-27
What happened
Borussia Dortmund 2–2 Werder Bremen.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
BDDrawWB
expected goals
2.47–0.95
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 18% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
BD ↓WB →
012340
3
3
1
0
0
18
8
4
1
0
210
9
5
1
0
38
8
4
1
0
45
5
2
1
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
BD
ATT XG+0.58
DEF XGA+0.95
FORM+0.33
AVAIL0.00
WB
ATT XG-0.53
DEF XGA-0.46
FORM+0.67
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG