Bundesliga · 2026-27
What happened
SC Paderborn 07 3–1 TSG Hoffenheim.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
SP0DrawTH
expected goals
0.67–1.16
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 21% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
SP0 ↓TH →
012340
16
19
11
4
1
111
12
7
3
1
24
4
2
1
0
31
1
1
0
0
40
0
0
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
SP0
ATT XG-1.51
DEF XGA+0.43
FORM-0.67
AVAIL0.00
TH
ATT XG+0.29
DEF XGA-0.48
FORM-1.00
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG