◆
MPFC
⚙
WED, OCT 21
Int. Friendlies · 2026
JAP v PAR
Recognise Japan’s players →Recognise Paraguay’s players →
Japan›
vs
Tue, Nov 17 · 01:10 PM UTC
Paraguay›
Match context
Int. Friendlies

Start with the competition and phase, then use form and the model to understand how the teams arrived here.

Model view
38%
33%
29%
JAPDrawPAR
expected goals
1.03–0.88
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
JAP ↓PAR →
012340
15
13
6
2
0
1
15
13
6
2
0
2
8
7
3
1
0
3
3
2
1
0
0
4
1
1
0
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
JAP
ATT XG+1.35
DEF XGA+1.40
FORM+0.67
AVAIL0.00
PAR
ATT XG-0.55
DEF XGA+2.90
FORM+0.67
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG
Int. Friendlies · 2026
JAP v PAR
Recognise Japan’s players →Recognise Paraguay’s players →
Japan›
vs
Tue, Nov 17 · 01:10 PM UTC
Paraguay›
Match context
Int. Friendlies

Start with the competition and phase, then use form and the model to understand how the teams arrived here.

Model view
38%
33%
29%
JAPDrawPAR
expected goals
1.03–0.88
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
JAP ↓PAR →
012340
15
13
6
2
0
1
15
13
6
2
0
2
8
7
3
1
0
3
3
2
1
0
0
4
1
1
0
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
JAP
ATT XG+1.35
DEF XGA+1.40
FORM+0.67
AVAIL0.00
PAR
ATT XG-0.55
DEF XGA+2.90
FORM+0.67
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG