◆
MPFC
⚙
WED, OCT 21
UEFA Nations League · League phase · 2026
WAL v POR
Recognise Wales’s players →Recognise Portugal’s players →
Wales›
vs
Tue, Nov 17 · 07:45 PM UTC
Portugal›
What is at stake
UEFA Nations League is part of the road to the next World Cup.

Qualification is built across several international windows, so this match is one step in a longer campaign rather than a standalone event.

Model view
16%
27%
57%
WALDrawPOR
expected goals
0.71–1.57
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
WAL ↓POR →
012340
10
16
13
7
3
1
7
11
9
5
2
2
3
4
3
2
1
3
1
1
1
0
0
4
0
0
0
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
WAL
ATT XG-0.70
DEF XGA-1.15
FORM-1.00
AVAIL0.00
POR
ATT XG-0.38
DEF XGA+2.50
FORM+1.00
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG
UEFA Nations League · League phase · 2026
WAL v POR
Recognise Wales’s players →Recognise Portugal’s players →
Wales›
vs
Tue, Nov 17 · 07:45 PM UTC
Portugal›
What is at stake
UEFA Nations League is part of the road to the next World Cup.

Qualification is built across several international windows, so this match is one step in a longer campaign rather than a standalone event.

Model view
16%
27%
57%
WALDrawPOR
expected goals
0.71–1.57
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
WAL ↓POR →
012340
10
16
13
7
3
1
7
11
9
5
2
2
3
4
3
2
1
3
1
1
1
0
0
4
0
0
0
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
WAL
ATT XG-0.70
DEF XGA-1.15
FORM-1.00
AVAIL0.00
POR
ATT XG-0.38
DEF XGA+2.50
FORM+1.00
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG