◆
MPFC
⚙
WED, OCT 21
UEFA Nations League · League phase · 2026
ICE v LUX
Iceland›
vs
Mon, Nov 16 · 05:00 PM UTC
Luxembourg›
What is at stake
UEFA Nations League is part of the road to the next World Cup.

Qualification is built across several international windows, so this match is one step in a longer campaign rather than a standalone event.

Model view
1%
93%
ICEDrawLUX
expected goals
0.35–3.53
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
ICE ↓LUX →
012340
2
7
13
15
13
1
1
3
5
5
5
2
0
0
1
1
1
3
0
0
0
0
0
4
0
0
0
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
ICE
ATT XG-1.56
DEF XGA-0.70
FORM+0.33
AVAIL0.00
LUX
ATT XG+0.93
DEF XGA+3.25
FORM-0.33
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG
UEFA Nations League · League phase · 2026
ICE v LUX
Iceland›
vs
Mon, Nov 16 · 05:00 PM UTC
Luxembourg›
What is at stake
UEFA Nations League is part of the road to the next World Cup.

Qualification is built across several international windows, so this match is one step in a longer campaign rather than a standalone event.

Model view
1%
93%
ICEDrawLUX
expected goals
0.35–3.53
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
ICE ↓LUX →
012340
2
7
13
15
13
1
1
3
5
5
5
2
0
0
1
1
1
3
0
0
0
0
0
4
0
0
0
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
ICE
ATT XG-1.56
DEF XGA-0.70
FORM+0.33
AVAIL0.00
LUX
ATT XG+0.93
DEF XGA+3.25
FORM-0.33
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG