◆
MPFC
⚙
WED, OCT 21
UEFA Nations League · League phase · 2026
NOR v WAL
Recognise Norway’s players →Recognise Wales’s players →
Norway›
vs
Sat, Nov 14 · 05:00 PM UTC
Wales›
What is at stake
UEFA Nations League is part of the road to the next World Cup.

Qualification is built across several international windows, so this match is one step in a longer campaign rather than a standalone event.

Model view
77%
14%
9%
NORDrawWAL
expected goals
3.02–1.00
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
NOR ↓WAL →
012340
2
2
1
0
0
1
5
5
3
1
0
2
8
8
4
1
0
3
8
8
4
1
0
4
6
6
3
1
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
NOR
ATT XG+1.55
DEF XGA-0.03
FORM-1.00
AVAIL0.00
WAL
ATT XG-0.70
DEF XGA-1.15
FORM-1.00
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG
UEFA Nations League · League phase · 2026
NOR v WAL
Recognise Norway’s players →Recognise Wales’s players →
Norway›
vs
Sat, Nov 14 · 05:00 PM UTC
Wales›
What is at stake
UEFA Nations League is part of the road to the next World Cup.

Qualification is built across several international windows, so this match is one step in a longer campaign rather than a standalone event.

Model view
77%
14%
9%
NORDrawWAL
expected goals
3.02–1.00
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
NOR ↓WAL →
012340
2
2
1
0
0
1
5
5
3
1
0
2
8
8
4
1
0
3
8
8
4
1
0
4
6
6
3
1
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
NOR
ATT XG+1.55
DEF XGA-0.03
FORM-1.00
AVAIL0.00
WAL
ATT XG-0.70
DEF XGA-1.15
FORM-1.00
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG