◆
MPFC
⚙
WED, OCT 21
UEFA Nations League · League phase · 2026
BUL v ICE
Recognise Bulgaria’s players →Recognise Iceland’s players →
Bulgaria›
vs
Fri, Nov 13 · 07:45 PM UTC
Iceland›
What is at stake
UEFA Nations League is part of the road to the next World Cup.

Qualification is built across several international windows, so this match is one step in a longer campaign rather than a standalone event.

Model view
94%
2%
BULDrawICE
expected goals
4.52–0.63
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
BUL ↓ICE →
012340
1
0
0
0
0
1
3
2
1
0
0
2
6
4
1
0
0
3
9
6
2
0
0
4
10
6
2
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
BUL
ATT XG+4.29
DEF XGA+1.11
FORM-0.33
AVAIL0.00
ICE
ATT XG-1.56
DEF XGA-0.70
FORM+0.33
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG
UEFA Nations League · League phase · 2026
BUL v ICE
Recognise Bulgaria’s players →Recognise Iceland’s players →
Bulgaria›
vs
Fri, Nov 13 · 07:45 PM UTC
Iceland›
What is at stake
UEFA Nations League is part of the road to the next World Cup.

Qualification is built across several international windows, so this match is one step in a longer campaign rather than a standalone event.

Model view
94%
2%
BULDrawICE
expected goals
4.52–0.63
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
BUL ↓ICE →
012340
1
0
0
0
0
1
3
2
1
0
0
2
6
4
1
0
0
3
9
6
2
0
0
4
10
6
2
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
BUL
ATT XG+4.29
DEF XGA+1.11
FORM-0.33
AVAIL0.00
ICE
ATT XG-1.56
DEF XGA-0.70
FORM+0.33
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG