UEFA Nations League · League phase · 2026
What happened
Kazakhstan 2–2 Faroe Islands.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
KAZDrawFI
expected goals
1.13–0.17
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 33% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
KAZ ↓FI →
012340
27
5
0
0
0
131
5
0
0
0
217
3
0
0
0
37
1
0
0
0
42
0
0
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
KAZ
ATT XG+2.84
DEF XGA+3.25
FORM-1.00
AVAIL0.00
FI
ATT XG-2.32
DEF XGA+3.25
FORM0.00
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG