UEFA Nations League · League phase · 2026
What happened
Northern Ireland 0–0 Georgia.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
NIDrawGEO
expected goals
0.86–1.12
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 32% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
NI ↓GEO →
012340
14
15
9
3
1
112
13
7
3
1
25
6
3
1
0
31
2
1
0
0
40
0
0
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
NI
ATT XG-0.58
DEF XGA+0.61
FORM+0.33
AVAIL0.00
GEO
ATT XG-0.15
DEF XGA+1.59
FORM-0.33
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG