UEFA Nations League · League phase · 2026
What happened
Azerbaijan 1–0 Lithuania.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
AZEDrawLIT
expected goals
0.54–1.02
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 19% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
AZE ↓LIT →
012340
21
21
11
4
1
111
12
6
2
1
23
3
2
1
0
31
1
0
0
0
40
0
0
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
AZE
ATT XG-1.22
DEF XGA+2.96
FORM+1.00
AVAIL0.00
LIT
ATT XG+0.84
DEF XGA+1.98
FORM0.00
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG