UEFA Nations League · League phase · 2026
What happened
Bosnia-Herzegovina 1–1 Sweden.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
BOSDrawSWE
expected goals
2.59–1.83
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 19% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
BOS ↓SWE →
012340
1
2
2
1
1
13
6
5
3
1
24
7
7
4
2
33
6
6
4
2
42
4
4
2
1
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
BOS
ATT XG-0.28
DEF XGA-0.16
FORM+0.33
AVAIL0.00
SWE
ATT XG+0.21
DEF XGA+0.02
FORM+0.67
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG