UEFA Nations League · League phase · 2026
What happened
Azerbaijan 0–0 Liechtenstein.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
AZEDrawLIE
expected goals
1.31–0.27
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 29% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
AZE ↓LIE →
012340
21
6
1
0
0
127
7
1
0
0
218
5
1
0
0
38
2
0
0
0
43
1
0
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
AZE
ATT XG-1.22
DEF XGA+2.96
FORM+1.00
AVAIL0.00
LIE
ATT XG-2.32
DEF XGA+0.59
FORM-1.33
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG