UEFA Nations League · League phase · 2026
What happened
Lithuania 1–1 Azerbaijan.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
LITDrawAZE
expected goals
1.47–0.20
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 25% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
LIT ↓AZE →
012340
19
4
0
0
0
128
6
1
0
0
220
4
0
0
0
310
2
0
0
0
44
1
0
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
LIT
ATT XG+0.84
DEF XGA+1.98
FORM0.00
AVAIL0.00
AZE
ATT XG-1.22
DEF XGA+2.96
FORM+1.00
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG