UEFA Nations League · League phase · 2026
What happened
Faroe Islands 1–1 Kazakhstan.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
FIDrawKAZ
expected goals
0.22–0.90
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 40% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
FI ↓KAZ →
012340
33
29
13
4
1
17
6
3
1
0
21
1
0
0
0
30
0
0
0
0
40
0
0
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
FI
ATT XG-2.32
DEF XGA+3.25
FORM0.00
AVAIL0.00
KAZ
ATT XG+2.84
DEF XGA+3.25
FORM-1.00
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG