UEFA Nations League · League phase · 2026
What happened
Georgia 0–1 Northern Ireland.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
GEODrawNI
expected goals
1.41–0.68
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 17% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
GEO ↓NI →
012340
12
8
3
1
0
117
12
4
1
0
212
8
3
1
0
36
4
1
0
0
42
1
0
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
GEO
ATT XG-0.15
DEF XGA+1.59
FORM-0.33
AVAIL0.00
NI
ATT XG-0.58
DEF XGA+0.61
FORM+0.33
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG