UEFA Nations League · League phase · 2026
What happened
Liechtenstein 0–2 Lithuania.
This result now feeds the competition table, each team's form and the next model update.
Model view · before kickoff
LIEDrawLIT
expected goals
0.87–0.52
model
v2 · xG Dixon-Coles
Upset by the model's book — the winner carried just 20% pre-kick.
Dig into exact scoreline probabilities
LIE ↓LIT →
012340
25
13
3
1
0
122
11
3
1
0
29
5
1
0
0
33
1
0
0
0
41
0
0
0
0
% chance of each scoreline · Poisson on expected goals
Form · last 5
What drives the forecast
LIE
ATT XG-2.32
DEF XGA+0.59
FORM-1.33
AVAIL0.00
LIT
ATT XG+0.84
DEF XGA+1.98
FORM0.00
AVAIL0.00
z-scores vs field average · fitted on 2-season xG